Money supply M1, M2, M3 | TMS, Debt & Credit |
---|---|
Inflation | Velocity |
---|---|
Unemployment | Total Money Supply |
---|---|
Total credit, with sectors | Money supply values |
---|---|
Total money supply, w/deriv. | Austrian AMS (TMS1) weekly |
---|---|
Recession probability | Yield spread - 10 year & 3 month Treasuries (burgundy line in chart below) |
Recession probability, adjusted ** | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
5% | +1.21 | 30-35% | ||
10% | +0.76 | 35-40% | ||
15% | +0.46 | 40-45% | ||
20% | +0.22 | 45-50% | ||
25% | +0.02 | 50-55% | ||
30% | -0.17 | 55-60% | ||
40% | -0.50 | 65-70% | ||
50% | -0.82 | 75-80% | ||
60% | -1.13 | 85-90% | ||
70% | -1.46 | 95-100% | ||
80% | -1.85 | 100% | ||
90% | -2.40 | 100% |